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The Effects of Urban Planning:
Each change in urban planning has consequences that influence the future development of a city or urban region. Whether buildings are constructed, streets built, railroads laid or new functions move in or out, the more extensive the changes are, the more far-reaching the consequences will be. The following examples show how changes in urban planning can influence the future development of a city.
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Figure 1 shows the development potential of Berlin after the city was fully reunified in 1991. The most development potential lies in the western part of the city center around Potsdamer Platz and in the eastern section of the district of Charlottenburg. In the early 1990s, the situation in Berlin was probably assessed incorrectly. Areas with a very high development potential were sold at very low prices, while others with little development potential were overestimated for certain building projects. Urban development without a simulation to predict the exact effects of urban planning is comparable to trying to land a jumbo jet on a wet runway on a foggy night without any guidance from the control tower. Then go break a leg! Cities are complex systems that react sensitively to change.
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Figure 1: the development potential of Berlin in 1991
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In the early 1990s, the city of Berlin started a huge residential building program that significantly changed the city’s development structure. In addition, the modification of the land-use plan in 1994 led to further changes in the development structure. In the district of Prenzlauerberg and in the area north of the city center, the residential building project and the modification of the land-use plan triggered, after a certain threshold value, an economic upturn. This example shows how a change in the development structure can shift or modify the development potential of a city or urban region. The urban
Berlin Simulation
already foresaw this change years in advance.
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Figure 2: the development potential of Berlin 1995 to 2002
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Assuming that in Berlin a northern section of the A100 freeway is turned into a freeway ring that runs around the city, similar to the Hobrecht Plan of 1862. The result of this freeway project is probably not what Berlin would want from such a project. The development potential would shift away from the district of Prenzlauerberg and the city center and head north in the direction of the districts of Pankow and Wedding, as well as to the south of the district of Reineckendorf. In the existing business centers, development potential would decrease, while in the new areas, the emerging development potential could not be exploited enough to develop functioning business centers. Developing the city of Berlin in this way would cause fluctuations in the economic cycle. On the whole, the result is that Berlin has less development potential after converting the A100 into a freeway ring. In Berlin, the S-Bahn or city railroad ring was completed only a few years ago. Similar to the freeway ring project, the northern section of the S-Bahn was turned into a ring that runs around the city. The trends shifting development potential to the north must have already set in! At present, this has not been researched any further, because we are first looking for sponsors in order to continue research on the
Berlin Simulation.
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Figure 3: Simulation of the freeway ring A100 and the resulting effects
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Development planning projects can also be used for strategic purposes. The following situation would be an example. A project is sought that would increase development potential in the city center in order to generate an economic upturn in this area. In the simulation, a southern expressway was found that more or less takes the course of the yellow line illustrated in Figure 3. In this situation, a southern expressway could be advantageous for the city of Berlin. In the
Berlin Simulation,
where we sought the most optimal development for this city, the project of a southern expressway was, however, not used, because the Berlin Senate is not planning to construct one. For optimal future development, the Berlin simulation only uses plans that the Senate intends to realize. The plans used were strategically placed in a certain order and, in part, modified, so that the best possible economic development results for the city of Berlin.
author: Aurelius Bernet
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Figure 4: Simulation of the southern expressway and the resulting effects
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In the strategic urban planning computer game
Metropolitan Simulation Game,
you can see how your city changes by watching the results of your own planning and building.
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